Iraq’s journey to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has been one of the most dramatic qualification stories in international football. The Lions of Mesopotamia navigated three stages of the Asian qualifying campaign, playing 20 matches before earning a playoff showdown with South America’s seventh-placed team, Bolivia. A 2-1 aggregate victory secured Iraq’s first World Cup appearance in 40 years.
However, Iraq face a daunting challenge in Group I, where they have been drawn alongside Norway, Senegal, and France. Progression to the knockout stage appears difficult, but they will be determined to make life uncomfortable for their opponents.
In fact, Iraq recently demonstrated their competitiveness by holding Spain to a 1-1 draw in a pre-tournament friendly.
Norway, meanwhile, were outstanding during qualification, winning all eight of their qualifying matches. Yet their World Cup preparations have been less convincing. In four warm-up matches, Norway managed only one victory, defeating Sweden while drawing with Switzerland and Morocco and losing 2-1 to the Netherlands.
Despite possessing greater individual quality, Norway may find this opening fixture tougher than expected.
Recent Form
Iraq
- Qualified through the intercontinental playoffs
- Unbeaten in three of their last four matches
- Drew 1-1 with Spain in a recent friendly
- Strong defensive organization
Norway
- Won all eight World Cup qualifying matches
- Only one win in their last four friendlies
- Draws against Switzerland and Morocco
- Lost 2-1 to the Netherlands
Team News
Iraq
No major injury concerns have been reported, and Iraq are expected to have a full squad available.
Norway
Norway have no significant absences and should be able to field their strongest lineup.
Key stars include:
- Erling Haaland
- Alexander Sørloth
- Oscar Bobb
- Fredrik Aursnes
Probable Lineups
Norway
Ørjan Nyland; Julian Ryerson, Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggem, David Møller Wolfe; Oscar Bobb, Sander Berge, Fredrik Aursnes, Antonio Nusa; Alexander Sørloth, Erling Haaland.
Iraq
Jalal Hassan Talib; Makenzie, Hashem, Tahseen, Saadoun; Farji, Ali Jasim Iqbal, Sher, Qasem; Ali Al-Hamadi, Aymen Hussein.
Betting Analysis
Asian Handicap: Iraq +2.0
Recent trends suggest Iraq could keep the scoreline respectable:
- Iraq have covered the Asian handicap in three of their last four matches.
- Norway have failed to cover the handicap in five of their last seven games.
- Iraq’s disciplined defensive approach could frustrate Norway for long periods.
Pick: Iraq +2.0
Over/Under Goals: Under 3.0
Several statistical indicators support a lower-scoring contest:
- Sixteen of Iraq’s recent matches have finished with three goals or fewer.
- Only one of Norway’s last four matches produced more than three goals.
- Opening World Cup fixtures often begin cautiously.
Pick: Under 3.0 Goals
Cards Market
Disciplinary statistics point toward a physical encounter:
- Iraq’s last four matches produced 23 yellow cards and one red card.
- Norway average approximately 3.1 cards per match across their last ten games.
- The intensity of a World Cup opener should increase the likelihood of fouls and bookings.
Pick: Over 3.5 Total Cards
Expert Prediction
Recommended Bets
- Iraq +2.0 Asian Handicap
- Under 3.0 Goals
- Over 3.5 Total Cards
Correct Score Prediction
Iraq 0-1 Norway
Norway remain the superior team on paper and possess match-winners such as Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth. However, Iraq’s resilience, defensive discipline, and recent performances suggest they could keep the game close and make Norway work hard for all three points.